影响统计插值分析误差的若干因素分析

采用理想观测网,用数值方法计算统计插值分析误差。减小观测误差或初估值误差、增加观测数量、恰当减小观测空间间距、以及选取分布合理的观测资料,有利提高分析精度;如果计算使用的归一化观测误差方差、误差相关函数的特征和总体统计平均情况不一致,有可能造成分析误差的明显增加。最后,利用特征向量分析方法,对归一化观测误差方差、观测误差相关属性对于不同尺度统计插值分析误差的影响进行讨论。     

Characterization of a multilayer aquifer using open well dilution tests

An approach to characterization of multilayer aquifer systems using open well borehole dilution is described. The approach involves measuring observation well flow velocities while a nearby extraction well is pumped by introducing a saline tracer into observation wells and collecting dilution vs. depth profiles. Inspection of tracer profile evolution allows discrete permeable layers within the aquifer to be identified. Dilution profiles for well sections between permeable layers are then converted into vertical borehole flow velocities and their evolution, using an analytic solution to the advection-dispersion equation applied to borehole flow. The dilution approach is potentially able to measure much smaller flow velocities that would be detectable using flowmeters. Vertical flow velocity data from the observation wells are then matched to those generated using a hydraulic model of the aquifer system, "shorted" by the observation wells, to yield the hydraulic properties of the constituent layers. Observation well flow monitoring of pumping tests represents a cost-effective alternative or preliminary approach to pump testing each layer of a multilayer aquifer system separately using straddle packers or screened wells and requires no prior knowledge of permeable layer depths and thicknesses. The modification described here, of using tracer dilution rather than flowmeter logging to obtain well flow velocities, allows the approach to be extended to greater well separations, thus characterizing a larger volume of the aquifer. An example of the application of this approach to a multilayer Chalk Aquifer in Yorkshire, Northeast England, is presented.     

Upper Limits on the Continuum Emission from Geminga at 74 and 326 MHz

We report a search for radio continuum emission from the gamma-ray pulsar Geminga. We have used the VLA to image the location of the optical counterpart of Geminga at 74 and 326 MHz. We detect no radio counterpart. We derive upper limits to the pulse-averaged flux density of Geminga, taking diffractive scintillation into account. We find that diffractive scintillation is probably quenched at 74 MHz and does not influence our upper limit, S<56 mJy (2 sigma), but that a 95% confidence level at 326 MHz is S<5 mJy. Owing to uncertainties on the other low-frequency detections and the possibility of intrinsic variability or extrinsic variability (refractive interstellar scintillation) or both, our nondetections are nominally consistent with these previous detections.     

Mountain evolution and environmental changes of Huangshan (Yellow mountain),China

Huangshan(Yellowmountain)islocatedinsouthernpoofthelowerreaChesoftheYangtZemyer,30'31'Nand118"if'E.ItShigheStLotUSFlowerPeakis1864mabovesealevel.ItisoneofthetencelebretedscenicSPOtSinChinaandwasincludedintheWorldNaturalandCultulalHeritageListbyU'NESCOin1990.OneofthemajorreasonsforincludingitinthelistisbecauseofHuangshan'simPOrtantvalueforgeologicalacgeomorphicscienceicresearches.Inthe~es,Lee(1936)proPOsedthe"confinnatoryevidenceofPleistoceneglacinhonfromtheHuangshan"l'l.Inthesi…     

用业务有限区模式预报台风路径的初步试验

利用国家气象中心新的有限区业务分析预报系统（ＬＡＦＳ）￣［１］，根据实例台风资料的一些参数和客观分析场，形成包含理想台风模型的模式初值，并将一个和业务有限区预报模式基本相同的、水平分辨率更高的预报模式和有限区预报模式单向嵌套，进行台风路径预报的初步试验。      

数据同化/卫星反演/数值预报相互循环作用系统

介绍数据同化／卫星反演／数值预报相互作用的一种方案，将原来相互独立进行的操作组成为相互作用的循环系统。国家卫星气象中心（ＮＳＭＣ）和国家气象中心（ＮＭＣ）联合开发这个项目，其目的是改善我国卫星探测反演及其在业务数值预报中应用的情况。该文首先介绍相互作用循环流物基本原理，以及的分析／预报模式和卫星反演的方案，然后给出国家卫星气象中心和国家气象中心联合试验的阶段性成果。研究试验表明，相互循环作用方案有     

Coral cover and partial mortality on anthropogenically impacted coral reefs at Eilat, northern Red Sea

A photographic analysis was conducted at five shallow reef sites (5-6 m) at Eilat (northern Red Sea) to study changes in live coral cover during a 2-year period. Logit regression analysis showed that levels of total oxidized nitrogen (TON; NO(2)+NO(3)) and the presence of SCUBA divers were significant explicative variables of coral partial mortality, while sedimentation rate was not significant. Sites exposed to mean TON levels above 0.4 microM TON showed significantly lower live stony coral cover and abundance per m(2), and higher partial mortality of coral colonies than sites exposed to lower TON. These findings may be useful in establishing limits for TON levels at Eilat, but must be interpreted with caution due to the complexity of nutrient dynamics in coral reefs, the uncertainty of the effects of nutrients on coral physiological processes, and the possibility of interactions among multiple coral stressors.     

GRAPES全球三维变分同化系统--基本设计方案与理想试验

中国气象局数值预报研究中心开发了一个全球和区域统一框架的格点三维变分资料同化系统(GRAPES3D-Var).作者给出全球版本的方案设计,采用单点观测试验检验方案设计的合理性和正确性.全球方案选择流函数、速度势、非平衡高度和相对湿度作为分析求解的控制变量,用线性平衡方程作为质量场和风场的动力约束,通过预调方法解决背景误差协方差矩阵阶数过大和难以求逆的问题,其中垂直变换和物理变换以及观测算子设计等方面与区域方案相同,但预调的水平变换采用球谐函数谱滤波表示背景误差协方差的水平相关模型,避免了递归滤波在高纬和极区因相关尺度过大无法实施的问题.另外,设计了一个使极区插值和差分计算完全闭合的网格以及相应的算法,解决了极点分析问题.单点观测理想试验结果表明,GRAPES 3D-Var系统能够合理给出全球任何地区的分析.